A peaceful transition, for now

Congress approved Trump's win today, but that doesn't signal a healthy democracy. What will they do in 2028?

This look like a guy who wouldn’t try to serve a third term?

One by one, members of the 119th Congress stood today and declared Electoral College votes from each of the 50 states to “be regular in form and authentic.” This is the mundane and sometimes legally-debated language of the portions of the constitution that deal with certifying the election of the president, and it was uttered today like it has been for most of our history, with a few notable exceptions like, you know, that attempted insurrection four years ago.

Rarely is it news when the thing that is expected to happen simply does, but today that was the case, because Congress and Vice President Kamala Harris abided by their constitutional duty to certify the results of November’s election. This obviously isn’t supposed to be news because certification is something that’s just supposed to happen. But all that changed four years ago today. Then came the election denial movement and all the madness of the race to the White House, when it was entirely unclear whether we would be launched into a full-blown constitutional crisis by Donald Trump’s refusal to accept another election loss, like he did in 2020.

Today’s news about the certification of Trump’s win has mostly been focused on the fact that Congress and Harris did their job, thus keeping democracy intact. What that perspective misses is that it’s only intact because Trump won. And by intact, I’d add that it’s only barely so.

There are a number of signs that our democracy is not a healthy one. The first and most obvious one is that Trump has almost completely avoided any repercussions for planning, inspiring and supporting an attempt to overturn his own election loss. Big strike right down the middle of the plate there. Next up is Trump’s plans to ensure that the people who participated in the attempted insurrection — his foot soldiers, essentially — avoid punishment as well. Trump has promised to pardon the January 6 defendants on day one of his presidency.

But you already know all this. These are the obvious ways our democracy is showing signs of deep distress. As Washington prepares for a second Trump administration and the chaos it will bring, here are a few other items to pay attention to if you want an idea of where we’re headed — and it includes the unthinkable: a third Trump presidency.